Summary
The U.S. minivan market was down 20% year over year for the first quarter of 2017 on a unit basis.
The market leader by far is FCA, which was down 13% as an average for its multiple minivan models.
However, all the other competitors were down more than 13%, so FCA’s market share actually grew from 49% to 53%.
Keep in mind that FCA has a much higher share of its sales going to fleet customers (rental car agencies etc.) than companies such as Honda.
The plug-in hybrid version of the Chrysler Pacifica was delayed from January 1 to late April 2017. Honda also gets an all-new Odyssey by June.
When does being down 13% year over year mean that you gained market share? When you're Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) and you're looking at the U.S. minivan market, that's when.
The U.S. minivan market is currently running around 500,000 units per year, or under 3% of the total U.S. light vehicle market. We just got the 1Q 2017 sales numbers, and it's not a pretty picture.
Overall, the U.S. minivan market was down 20% year over year during the first quarter of 2017. In an overall light vehicle market that was flat to down perhaps 1%, that's a massive underperformance. Pickup trucks, for example, were up 5%.......One year ago, the market share leader was FCA with 49%. That's an insanely high number to begin with. If you're down 13%, that is normally evidence of your market share falling from such an unusually high level.
But not in this case.
Why? Because the competitors were down even more. Just look at this massacre! Toyota (NYSE:TM) down 25%, Honda (NYSE:HMC) down 23%, Kia (OTC:KIMTF) down 37%, and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) down 33%. This is nothing short of wild.
Is this a "canary in the coal mine" sign of a falling U.S. birth rate? Slowing family formation? I don't know, but one can wonder - and should continue to monitor.
This is as good a place as any other to point out that FCA has a very high share of its sales going into fleets, such as rental companies. Honda doesn't do that, and if you strip out FCA's fleet sales, it may not be any larger in selling to individual customers than Honda and perhaps Toyota too.
It is also visible from the auto ads in your local paper that FCA may also have the highest incentives. I have seen dealer discounts approach the 30% mark, or at least that's what the headline math seems to imply from viewing ads anecdotally. Companies such as Honda doesn't discount that much, from what I have seen.
FCA gains U.S. minivan market share in 1Q 2017
Yet, with all of those caveats, if you look at the overall retail plus fleet sales, as those are the numbers in the tables above, FCA somehow managed to translate a 13% volume reduction into market share gain from 49% a year ago to 53% this year. That may not bring home the bacon, but it's an excuse perhaps.
Explaining FCA: The delayed hybrid
FCA's plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version of the Pacifica minivan was supposed to go on sale around January 1. As it turns out, there was some sort of a delay, and deliveries are now slated to begin around the second half of April. That means essentially zero units were delivered in the March quarter.
Explaining Honda: The all-new model is imminent
In early January, Honda showed the all-new Odyssey to be built in Lincoln, Alabama, and said that it would be available by mid-year. That would mean sales should start by June. As such, the current/outgoing Odyssey would naturally suffer from declining sales, as any rational person would wait for the dramatically better one that's just around the corner. Only if offered dramatically higher incentives would someone consider the outgoing model.
One can, therefore, assume that Honda will see a huge increase in minivan sales starting by the third quarter of 2017.
Explaining Toyota: Not as much
Toyota announced, at the end of the first quarter, that the Sienna is getting a mid-cycle refresh starting in the fall of 2017 as a 2018 model. This would not have impacted 1Q sales, and the difference compared to the new model is not nearly as large as with the Honda Odyssey, which will be all-new at mid-year 2017.
Kia and Nissan: Nothing at all
For Kia and Nissan, no excuses at all are available to explain their hefty year-over-year declines in the U.S. minivan market. Generally, the Nissan product is much overdue for replacement, and the Kia still is very fresh despite having been launched some 30 months ago. The Kia Sedona remains the only minivan model of which you can take delivery today with these three attributes:
Android Auto
Apple CarPlay
10-year 100,000-mile powertrain warranty
That will soon change, but for now, and for all of 1Q 2017, the Kia is and was the only one with a few exclusive selling points.
Stock impact: There's a reason FCA is treading water this quarter at the tiniest hair above the $10 mark. While FCA continues to do very well with its RAM pickup trucks, not all is well. The outstanding and market-leading minivan portfolio ought to be doing a lot better than being down 13% - even with the excuse that every single competitor did even worse.
